Unfortunately there isn't one perfect answer to this question. Generally, tanked water heaters have a life expectancy of 10-15 years. However, we have seen some burst at 10 years old, and others have made it to 20 (which we don't recommend!!). It's always better to replace it sooner rather than later as a preventative measure, particularly if you are in a condo or apartment building with units beneath you.
Once it hits 10 years old, it's a good idea to keep a close eye on it and to begin to consider replacing it. If you see any water or wet areas near the base, call a plumber right away!
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